I have some news. The Barack Obama you knew and loved during the campaign, the one who ran on his liberal voting record in the Senate and defied convention by continuing to tack left after the convention, may well disappear soon. He will be replaced with a Barack Obama you won't be so familiar with -- one who is more pragmatic than ideological, one who will speak to the left but govern to the center. One or more of the issues he made promises about may well be sacrificed in the name of political progress. It might be nationalized health care. It might be global warming. But don't become disillusioned. Because moving to the center is the smart play for Obama.

It's what successful presidents do. You say what you need to say. You over-promise. You get elected. When you get to the White House, you develop selective amnesia and begin work on a series of winnable battles. President Bill Clinton’s first term is a good example of both what to do and what not to do: he stumbled out of the gate with his effort to permit homosexuals to serve openly in the military. He also failed to enact nationalized health care and raised taxes. Two years into his presidency, Democrats lost control of Congress. Clinton’s first-term successes were the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement and negotiating peace in the Balkans, which were issues with bipartisan support. Later he would pass a massive welfare reform package, also with bipartisan support. He was dragged there, but President Clinton settled in the center and left office after two terms with the highest end-of-presidency approval rating since WWII.

Obama might have no choice but to move to the middle. His reputation is defined by his claim that he is a transformative figure who can bridge the gaps that divide Americans. If Obama does not follow through on his promise to “resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long,” then he will lose support from the millions of Americans who elected him as a man who can change the nasty, inefficient, destructive nature of American politics. He will become the latest in a long line of politicians who over-promised and under-delivered.

President George W. Bush, who divided after promising to unite, will be remembered as such a politician. He has done his Democratic successor no favors. It is difficult to govern from the left when you have no money to spend on government programs. Federal debt is mounting. Economic growth has stalled. The current administration is meddling heavily with the free market, making unprecedented intrusions whose unintended consequences could decrease tax returns for years. Then there is the bailout. Thanks to both Republicans and Democrats, hundreds of billions of dollars that could have been used for Obama administration programs will be given to banks, insurance companies, automobile manufacturers and other billion-dollar entities that waddle up to Capitol Hill sucking their thumbs begging for money. In September, Obama said some of his programs, such as his middle-class tax cut, might have to be phased in because of the cost of the Wall Street bailout. Prepare for more lowered expectations.

That might sound bleak, but there is a silver lining. If you are a Democrat, and you like the idea of your party controlling the White House and Congress, a move to the center is in your long-term best interest. If Democrats can co-opt just enough Republican ideas – lower taxes, domestic drilling, government transparency, eliminating earmarks, for example – then Democrats can make Republicans the minority party for a long time. At that point you can start to compare Obama with President Ronald Reagan as a man who changed the political landscape for a generation.

It just may not go exactly like you pictured.

-- Joe Donatelli

Photo by Lost Albatross