“Surrender, surrender, but don’t give yourself away”

- Cheap Trick

Hillary Clinton is a fighter. She’s had to be. It’s nevertheless looking increasingly unlikely that she’ll catch up to Obama in pledged delegates before the last caucus in June. Of course, she’s hoping that she’ll get within spitting distance and be saved by the Superdelegates (sorry, Automatic Delegates.) She’ll try to get the Michigan and Florida delegates seated as well, and maybe even force a brokered convention.

But wait. Are there any circumstances that would lead her to drop out?

Beware the Ides of March

The Clinton campaign has called the March 4th Texas and Ohio primaries “must-win” contests. The demographics of these two states would seem to favor her, but Obama has made serious inroads among female, working class, and Latino voters. In the polls, Clinton’s once formidable lead is shrinking, especially inTexas. In the national polls, Obama’s lead may be very big.

What’s more, Obama will have two whole weeks to make his case. That’s two weeks of constant TV ads and10,000+ rallies. Obama does best in states where he has time to campaign. Hillary, who has lost the last ten primaries, resembles no one more than Rudy Giuliani: Giuliani thought he’d be able to lose the first five primaries and make his big comeback in Florida. We all know how that turned out.

Another Job

One argument for Hillary Clinton fighting to the bitter end says that she has nothing to lose and this is her last chance to be president (maybe even the last Clinton campaign). This may or may not be true. John McCain got a second chance and he’s 700 years old. However, what if another job opened up for Hillary?

A cabinet position in an Obama administration is unlikely. I doubt he’d offer her Vice President after such a vicious campaign. Besides, she voted for the war, and she doesn’t exactly represent change. And a position like Secretary of Health and Human Services is a little beneath her.

There’s one job opening, however that may be even better: Senate Majority Leader. There have been rumorsthat Harry Reid will step down at the end of the year. Now, ordinarily, the position would go to someone a bit more experienced (more experienced than Hillary? Does such a mortal even exist?), like Dodd, Durbin, or Schumer. But party sachems could dangle the job in front of Clinton to get her to drop out early.

Majority Leader might be the part Hillary was born to play. It requires less consensus building than President or Speaker of the House, and it would give her a prominent platform for her ideas on domestic policy.

There are a few problems: the senate is obsessed with seniority, and we already have a woman as the Speaker of the House. But if it’s a choice between that and an embarrassing brokered convention…

A Pyrrhic Victory

Imagine you’re Hillary. Congratulations, you’re the first woman nominee. Of course, the only way you won was by wrangling the Superdelegates (I mean, Automatic Delegates). So it looks like you’ve upset the will of the people. You got the delegates in Florida and Michigan seated, but this just re-enforces the idea that you’ll do anything to win.

Worst of all, It’s August. August 28^th. You have just two months and one week to run for president. John McCain has been the de facto nominee for SIX MONTHS. He’s raised millions. He’s ahead in the national polls. Independents adore him. He’s got trouble with his base, but now that you’re the nominee, they’re finally starting to unite.

What have you been up to for the last six months? You’ve been running a horribly negative campaign, and your liberal use of 527’s has reminded some of George W. Bush. Many enthusiastic Obama supporters would rather stay home than vote for you. Many black voters think you stole the election. Donna Brazile just left the party.

Still want the job?

Back to the Present

Okay, let’s say Hillary wins on March 4^th. If it’s a big win, which looks unlikely, then she’s right back in this thing, and Superdelegates (no, you know what, they are super) look more like tie-breakers and less like oligarchs.

If it’s a modest win, things don’t look so hot. She’d still be behind by more than 100 pledged delegates. She’ll stick around at least until the Pennsylvania Primary on April 22^nd, hoping for a huge victory. But after that, if she’s still down by 100 delegates, expect a steady trickle of calls for her to step down — first by Obama loyalists, then by more and more prominent party officials. — Hillel Aron

Photo: Mark Nozell (Used under Creative Commons License)